U.S. stock futures signaled anxiety Sunday night as Wall Street weighed the implications of deepening U.S. involvement in the Middle East with its attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Trump administration officials stressed that the airstrikes on Saturday night were targeted at Tehran’s nuclear program and not aimed at regime change nor the start of a wider war that would require boots on the ground.
But the direct involvement in offensive operations—which included massive “bunker busters” dropped from stealth bombers—in what had been a conflict primarily between Israel and Iran still marked a major escalation.
Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 153 points, or 0.36%. S&P 500 futures were down 0.39%, and Nasdaq futures slipped 0.52%.
Earlier on Sunday before premarket trading began, Wedbush Securities Managing Director Dan Ives had a bullish take for Wall Street in the wake of the U.S. attack on Iran.
“The market will view this Iran threat as now gone and that is a positive for growth in the broader Middle East and ultimately the tech sector,” he posted on X. “It will take some time for this conflict to settle, but the market will view the worst is now in the rear-view mirror. Expect stocks up.”
U.S. oil prices were up 2.8% at $75.84 per barrel after paring gains, and Brent crude leapt 2.7% to $79.07.
While global markets had been expecting to see an initial jolt for oil, energy analytics firm Kpler pointed to other mitigating factors that could soften the blow eventually.
“Expect oil to open with a sharp 7–10% gap up as risk premiums surge. But don’t be fooled, this may not last,” it posted on X.
Iran’s ability to retaliate is constrained, Kpler noted, saying a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely. Meanwhile, an early OPEC+ output boost for August of 411,000 barrels per day or more is increasingly likely, it added.
Escalation of the Middle East conflict could be a test of whether U.S. bonds and the dollar are still seen as safe-haven assets in times of crisis.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury edged up 1.4 basis points to at 4.389%. The dollar fell 0.32% against the euro and 0.25% against the yen. Gold, which is emerging as an alternative to the dollar, gave up gains to trade flat at $3,385.00 per ounce.
The coming week will feature several key events and economic reports. Several Federal Reserve officials will speak throughout the week, including Chairman Jerome Powell who is appearing on Capitol Hill on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Data for existing home sales, new home sales, and pending sales are due Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday, respectively, as the housing market shows signs of oversupply and weak demand.
Also on Thursday, an initial reading on the trade deficit will come out amid Trump’s tariffs along with durable-goods orders.
On Friday, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption and expenditures price index, is due.