- Gen Z and young millennials are finding new ways to sniff out a recession beyond tightening grocery budgets and falling stocks with the #RecessionIndicator social media trend. From empty bars to spiraling tipping culture, they’re seeing warning signs as economists raise the odds of a recession to upwards of 40%.
Gen Z and young millennials are turning to social media to share the unusual societal changes they’ve noticed—beyond tightening grocery budgets—that could signal the economy is about to crash.
“Lady Gaga making good music is a recession indicator,” TikTok user Ali Ambrose, going by @geniusgirlalert, said in a video that has racked up over 232,500 views. “People will stay complacent as long as they have food and entertainment: bread and circus. And we kinda don’t have bread.”
She’s part of the growing number of young people who are taking stock of how empty bars are and how fashion is moving into humble agrarian garb—and warning others that it’s a sign America is heading for a recession.
They’re labeling these notable shifts #RecessionIndicators.
Gen Z’s #RecessionIndicator social media trend
Each generation has developed a touchstone for an economic downturn; Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan coined the “men’s underwear index,” and Financial Literacy Diaries CEO Aaliyah Kissick recognized a “stripper index.”
A review of dietary trends during the Great Recession of 2008 also found that the downturn reduced the consumption of snacks. Gen Z on the other hand is drawing inspiration from their own lives, finding economic anxiety in the most commonplace items.
“We’re in Old Navy, and we’re pretty sure they’ve got some recession predictors out here,” another TikTok creator said, holding up a beige dress. “We’re starting fresh with our District 12 frock. It’s made out of a nice rough material…It doesn’t need washing that often. That is recession-core.”
Other young Americans on TikTok and across social media shared their own quirky, funny ways they’re predicting an economic bust—from items being shipped in make-shift packages, to tipping culture, to playing the harmonica. Gen Z even see going to graduate school as a #RecessionIndicator, likely as a way to delay entry into a weak white-collar labor market.
Even young people’s willingness to have a night out on the town is waning—spending $20 on a vodka cranberry or $50 on a ride home isn’t sustainable for most.
“The nightlife scene is basically gone,” another TikTok user said in a video. “We’re in spring, we’ve had sunny days, it’s a Friday night, there was no one in the streets by 12:45 [am]…People can’t afford licenses, people can’t afford to go out. People can’t afford drinks, people can’t afford to come home late in an Uber.”
Gen Z might be poking fun at their financial anxieties, but the reality of their struggles is quite bleak.
About a third of Gen Z and millennials are actively concerned their finances could lead to homelessness, according to a 2024 report from fintech company Acorns. Housing costs are soaring, salary hikes and job openings have fizzled out, and junior employees tackle the constant anxiety of being laid off.
Gen Z may be right about a looming recession
Gen Z, who are more vulnerable to high costs of living and low wages, may be feeling the clinch more than others. They’re picking up on the subtle ways life is already changing—and their downturn predictions may even be on the money.
Goldman Sachs just raised its prediction of a U.S. recession to 35%, while JPMorgan has raised the odds to 40%. Estimates have been rising as President Trump continues to wage a war on foreign imports, including a sweeping 25% tariff on non-U.S. cars, and a 10% hike on all Chinese goods. These policies are stoking fear in the hearts of economists, who have continued to wage their bets against the American economy as the costs of living are set to spike.
About 28% of Americans anticipate that the economy next year will be in recession, up from 23% just last month, according to a recent poll from CBS News. Expectations that the U.S. economy will be “booming” or “steady” in 2026 also decreased.
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
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