Do Critics’ Picks Give Movies an Oscar Edge? – The Hollywood Reporter

At the end of 2021, a surprise contender zoomed toward a best picture nomination when Ryûsuke Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car began to sweep critics groups’ awards across the country. The Japanese drama earned the prize for best film from critics in Boston, Los Angeles, New York and Seattle, besting then-frontrunners Dune and The Power of the Dog and eventual best picture winner CODA. Buoyed by critical acclaim, Drive My Car went the extra mile beyond the international feature category, which it won: It also earned Academy Award nominations for best picture, director and original screenplay, way outpacing any predictions made by prognosticators when the season had begun in earnest.

People often deride the Oscars for being about artsy films most moviegoers don’t see. But the fact remains that it’s the studio-backed movies with fat FYC budgets that typically garner Oscar nominations — making Drive My Car’s success all the more the outlier. While critics don’t get to vote for the Oscars (most are not Academy members), they do have the power to strengthen the chances of a film, and its stars, in the race.

This year, there were few wild cards among the biggest critics groups’ picks for best film of the year. The L.A. Film Critics Association crowned A24’s The Zone of Interest, while the New York Film Critics Circle recognized Apple/Paramount’s Killers of the Flower Moon — and both are leading contenders in the best picture race. But both groups also looked past many of the A-listers angling for honors, from Annette Bening and Bradley Cooper to Cillian Murphy and Margot Robbie. The New York critics chose Flower Moon’s Lily Gladstone as best actress, May December’s Charles Melton for supporting actor and The Holdovers’ Da’Vine Joy Randolph for supporting actress. The biggest surprise was best actor winner Franz Rogowski, a German actor whose film Passages — released by streaming upstart Mubi — was utterly dwarfed by other contenders when it came to campaign muscle.

Besides the more expected wins for Poor Things’ Emma Stone and The Holdovers’ Randolph in the lead and supporting categories, respectively, the L.A. critics also spread the love to Sandra Hüller for lead performer for her turns in Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest. More surprising was their pick of Rachel McAdams’ supporting performance in Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, a sentimental period comedy (no pun intended) absent from the awards playing field thus far.

Rogowski and McAdams may be long shots for their crowded Oscar categories, but it’s breakouts like Gladstone, Hüller and Randolph who have the most to gain from the critical anointing. 

Gladstone would have gotten a pass if her strategy team had her going for an easier win in the supporting category — a path rising stars like Alicia Vikander and Daniel Kaluuya have taken en route to Oscar victories. True to form, though, the Flower Moon star is campaigning as a lead actress — a move that some pundits speculate could cost her the gold. The L.A. critics might agree; they made Gladstone a runner-up to McAdams and Randolph in their picks. 

Hüller’s L.A. critics triumph also boosts her profile with American audiences. And with the ever-increasing international voting bloc in critical and awards groups across the board, it’s difficult to imagine her being passed over for a nomination. In recent years, European actors have nabbed Oscar noms after netting critics’ awards, including Antonio Banderas for Pain and Glory, Marion Cotillard for Two Days, One Night, Penélope Cruz for Parallel Mothers and Isabelle Huppert for Elle. 

Like Hüller, who has a robust European résumé, Randolph, a steadily working (and Tony-nominated) actress, is achieving breakthrough status. And while she has often stolen scenes in comic films like Dolemite Is My Name and The Lost City, not to mention such TV comedies as Only Murders in the Building and High Fidelity, it’s her portrayal of a grieving mother in The Holdovers that gives Alexander Payne’s very funny film its dramatic depth and heart.

Along with the L.A. and New York groups, Randolph has received honors from critics in Boston, Chicago, Dallas, St. Louis and Washington, D.C. She will likely carry that momentum as a favorite to win the Oscar for best supporting actress. 

This story first appeared in the Jan. 4 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine. Click here to subscribe.