Of the 14 major presidential polls taken in the past month, President Biden leads in 9 of them, which suggests that it is inaccurate to suggest that Trump is leading the 2024 election.
Simon Rosenberg tweeted:
There are now 14 recent polls with Biden tied/leading. 9 have Biden leads:
47-45 NYT/Siena (LVs)
49-48 Monmouth
49-48 NPR/Marist
42-41 & 44-42 YouGov/Economist
39-37 YouGov
40-36 & 37-35 Leger
Reuters = Biden +4 in battlegrounds— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) December 20, 2023
Important Disclaimer: Specific numbers are meaningless this far out from an election. Pay attention to the general shifts, not the horserace numbers that the media likes to focus on.
Polls individually are fuzzy and not very trustworthy at this stage, but the one thing that can be gleaned from dozens of polls is the general direction that an election is moving in, even at this very early stage.
There is no evidence that a majority of voters want Trump back in the White House.
The big driver of voter discontent has appeared to be inflation and the economy. Over the past month, Biden has gotten good news across the board on those fronts. Inflation is coming down. Gas prices have been dropping. Americans are starting to feel optimistic about the economy.
Something else happened over the past month that also deserves attention. Donald Trump came out of hiding and started doing more national media. As voters are getting a dose of Trump’s racism, fascism, and extremism that he has turned up to 11 for 2024, they appear to be remembering why they tossed the guy out on his ear in the first place.
All presidential elections for more than a generation have been close. No matter what happens with Trump’s criminal cases, voters should prepare for a close election.
However, the ideas that Biden is in big trouble, or Trump is leading are outdated media frames. Trump is already losing momentum, as there is something happening with the electorate that needs to be closely monitored over the coming months.
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Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association