A new Fox News Poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump 51%-48 in the critical battleground state of Georgia.
Harris receives 51% support to Trump’s 48% among both registered and likely voters. While her advantage may be narrow (inside the margin of error), it is steady. Last month, she was up 50-48% among registered voters.
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More Georgians see Harris as the candidate who will help the middle class and protect democracy by a 7-point margin on each. She is also seen as the candidate more likely to fight “for people like you” by 6 points. Harris’ largest lead is on handling the issue of abortion, where she is favored by 18 points. Trump’s largest lead is on handling immigration (+15 points).
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The two candidates are rated more closely on bringing needed change (Harris by 4 points), making the country safe (Trump +3), and handling the economy (Trump +4). His advantage on the economy today is half what it was last month.
With the economy quickly improving, Trump’s big lead has vanished on that issue, which is why he has leaned so hard into immigration, which is the one issue where he still has a clear lead.
Never read too much into one poll, but Harris victories in Georgia and North Carolina would be lights out for Trump. Pennsylvania would not matter to the outcome, and Harris could even lose Arizona and would still win the election.
I have not been a bullish on Harris’s ability to flip North Carolina as some others, but if the Vice President were to keep Georgia blue, it would give her a path to the presidency even if she lost Pennsylvania, Arizona, and North Carolina.
The reason why it is better to be Kamala Harris than Donald Trump right now is that she has more paths to victory than Trump.
Trump’s main path to victory is to hope that 2024 is a repeat of 2016 and he flips the Blue Wall. There is zero current indication at this time that we are on the road.
Donald Trump has a Georgia problem and it could cost him the election
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Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association