A new YouGov poll released today has some conflicting information within it. But there is one major takeaway. Only 35% of Americans believe that Trump should even be allowed to run for office again. Trump is precariously close to having two out of every three Americans believing that he has disqualified himself somehow and that he should not be “allowed” (Suggesting formal procedures) to run again.
This is an important consideration when Trump spouts off about “the American people will not stand for an arrest” and that things will get very bad. He has convinced himself that over half the American people support him. Even the people who believe that he should be able to run again would be highly unlikely to turn to violence. It is likely that only two to five percent of Americans would act out violently. Of course, it doesn’t take a large percentage, as we’ve seen. But MAGAs like to say that they are “50% of the country,” and that’s not true.
It wasn’t all bad news for Trump:
Yahoo News reports. “Three weeks ago, President Biden held a 6-point lead over Trump (48% to 42%) in a hypothetical head-to-head 2024 rematch — the Democrat’s largest advantage in months. In the latest survey, Biden’s margin has shrunk to 2 percentage points (47% to 45%).”
While Trump remains as competitive as ever in a general-election context — where partisanship matters most — the new poll also suggests his standing among Republican voters may be softening somewhat.
If Trump’s power among Republican voters is softening, it’s hard to see him holding up as a viable candidate nationally. DeSantis is cold-blooded and will launch a full frontal attack, promising all the MAGA, none of the baggage. And, of course, it’s possible that an independent conservative could enter the presidential race just to keep Trump out of office, clearing the way for Biden. Liz Cheney appears poised to possibly take on such a role.
Additionally, the “six point” to “two point” swing over three weeks almost screams “meaningless” in the larger context.
The full takeaway is that Trump may see himself as president again, though it’s not at all a given that he’ll actually run, but the numbers keep piling up against him. There is also the very relevant fact that he might be indicted, and an indictment would lay out more damning facts that would be sure to sap even more support.
It is hard to see Trump having much of a viable political future.
@JasonMiciak believes a day without learning is a day not lived. He is a political writer, features writer, author, and attorney. He is a Canadian-born dual citizen who spent his teen and college years in the Pacific Northwest and has since lived in seven states. He now enjoys life as a single dad of a young girl, writing from the beaches of the Gulf Coast. He loves crafting his flower pots, cooking, and currently studies philosophy of science, religion, and non-math principles behind quantum mechanics and cosmology. Please feel free to contact for speaking engagements or any concerns.