The dynamics of US elections are changing quickly. The old idea that Democrats only showed up to vote in presidential elections has been disproven in recent years by Democrats showing up in larger numbers in midterm, off-year, and special elections.
Republicans can no longer go into elections that many voters used to ignore, thinking that they have a built-in advantage.
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Donald Trump’s second presidency has been an accelerant for this changing behavior. Voters who are dissatisfied with the Trump presidency are showing up to vote at every opportunity. Turnout was high in the 2025 election, which, for the vast majority of the country, featured municipal races.
Trump’s unpopularity is so pervasive and saturating that it is overwhelming what experts thought they knew about voting patterns and turnout.
New data from the Marist Poll shows that voters are chomping at the bit to end the Trump presidency.
Let’s look at the Trump factor first:
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President Trump’s job approval rating among Americans is 39%, down slightly from 41% in September. 56% of Americans disapprove of the job the President is doing in office. This compares with 53%, previously.
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26% of Americans say they strongly approve of the job President Trump is doing while 48% strongly disapprove.
Lots of presidents have been unpopular, but the intensity of Trump’s unpopularity during his first year of his second term is historic. The urgency that the American people are feeling is being driven by dislike of Trump, and the rejection of Trump is being fueled by one dominant issue that isn’t the Epstein files.
The numbers get much worse for Trump and the Republicans, as you will see below.