As the world held its breath on Tuesday night, news of a ceasefire and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz brought a collective sigh of relief. But with shipments stalled in the strait for over a month, the disruption to global shipping will not resolve immediately.
“Traffic through Hormuz dropped by about 95 percent [during this conflict]. As a result, prices surged, and not just for crude oil but also for refined products like jet fuel, diesel, and gas oil,” says Carsten Ladekjær, CEO at Glander International Bunkering, which specializes in supplying fuel and lubricants to the global shipping industry.
The impact has been uneven across regions. Countries heavily dependent on Middle Eastern energy—particularly in Asia—have been most affected. India sources around 55 percent of its energy imports from the region, China about 50 percent, Japan 93 percent, South Korea 67 percent, and Singapore 70 percent, according to Ladekjær.
While the ceasefire signals a possible reopening, key details remain unclear. “Even with a ceasefire, reopening won’t be immediate,” Ladekjær says. “There’s a backlog, with ships waiting to leave, and likely a controlled process for who gets out first. Iran still appears to be managing that.”
Energy markets reacted quickly. Brent crude fell to around $94 from $110 earlier in the week—a drop of roughly 15 percent.
“Refined products like diesel and jet fuel have dropped even more, because markets are forward-looking—they price in expectations,” says Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst and head of research at Global Risk Management. “But we’re still well above prewar levels, which were around $60 to $70.”
A System Under Backlog
Around 1,000 ships remain in the Gulf, including hundreds of tankers awaiting passage.
As of this writing, more than 800 cargo ships and tankers are stuck inside the Persian Gulf, with over 1,000 additional vessels waiting on both sides of the Strait of Hormuz.
Under normal conditions, roughly 150 vessels pass through the strait daily. Experts say clearing the backlog will take time, as ships must be sequenced through, refueled, and repositioned.
“That’s a logistical nightmare. We don’t yet know what the current capacity will be, especially from a security standpoint,” says Lohmann Rasmussen. “It’s not something that can be solved overnight. There are logistical issues, security issues, and even communication challenges.”
Though the market has already seen a correction, that doesn’t mean prices at the pump or in storage will drop immediately.