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With everyone and his brother predicting that a blue tsunami will wash over the Senate as well as the House, I want to write something contrarian.
This way, if the Republicans do hang on to the Senate, I’ll get credit for defying the conventional wisdom. And if they don’t, I won’t get kicked out of the punditocracy – folks will just say well, he put a lot of caveats in there.
THE NINE KEY RACES THAT WILL DECIDE WHO CONTROLS THE SENATE, AND WHERE THEY STAND
The truth is, I don’t know who is going to capture the upper chamber, and neither do you.
And neither do all the pontificators and speculators online or on the air.
A view of the US Senate office as the US Capitol Police (USCP). (Celal Gunes/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
I do know the GOP is pouring tens of millions into contests they might otherwise lose, giving their people – even scandal-scarred Ken Paxton – a huge advantage on the airwaves in the final two weeks. But money doesn’t always move voters once they’ve made up their minds in this era of early voting.
Is Maine’s Susan Collins liked enough to hang one more time against aggressive Troy Jackson (and thankfully not weirdo Graham Platner), when Donald Trump shouts every day ‘Pretend I’m on the ballot’?” We got it, Mr. President.
Josh Turek is an Iowa legislator and also a wheelchair basketball player who suffers from spina bifida. His GOP opponent, Rep. Ashley Hinton, says she doesn’t want “endless wars” but welcomes a Trump visit.
She’s talked about such issues as open borders and transgender surgery. Turek has focused on the Iran war and soaring health premiums because Congress failed to amend the Affordable Care Act.
In nearby Kansas, where Trump campaigned yesterday, Democrat Adam Hamilton is the founder of a Methodist mega-church, which would seem like a big plus in that conservative state, but some Dems are turned off by the religious aspect. Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, an obstetrician who served in the Army Reserves, was hurt by a New York Times report on him suing patients who were behind on their bills.
Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan., during a Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee confirmation hearing in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, Sept. 16, 2026. (Daniel Heuer/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
By the way, did you ever think you’d see the day when the Republicans just gave up on North Carolina and steered their money elsewhere (conceding the win to former Gov. Roy Cooper)?
PRESIDENT TRUMP HEADS TO KANSAS TO CAMPAIGN FOR SEN ROGER MARSHALL
So I can conclude three things:
Many of these races have 1-or-2 point “leads,” which is within the margin of error, and polling is often inaccurate in an off-year election.
The GOP is playing defense in ruby-red states–Trump in Kansas?—which is why Democrats are increasingly confident this is their big year.
President Donald Trump arrives to speak during a campaign rally at Curtis D. Menard Memorial Sports Center in Wasilla, Alaska, on Oct. 13, 2026. (AFP via Getty Images)
And, in the famous Tip O’Neill saying, all politics is local.
There may be a mega-church guy or a man in a wheelchair or ex-Alaska congresswoman Mary Peltola, a former tribal judge who’s for “Fish, Family, Freedom,” but who former staffers say they heard using awful slurs.
How on earth do you handicap races with so many toss-ups?
Of course, Republicans want to make the country believe that all Dems are like Michigan socialist Abdul el-Sayed, who, when asked whether he’d provide military aid if Israel was under attack, says he would rather spend the money at home.
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I still think the Democrats will need to have Vegas luck to win enough Senate races to take control. They also have to defend their own turf. But (escape hatch here) I’m not saying it couldn’t happen.